Here are some quick thoughts on awards movies I’ve seen lately, the ones I’m allowed to talk about any way:

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Possible nomination for Frances McDormand but I would be surprised if it gets anything beyond that. While writer/director Martin McDonagh has a cult following, I don’t think many of them are Academy members and, anyway, this isn’t his best work. The screenplay has a weak ending and some lazy coincidences that probably cancel out the clever flips of who the audience is rooting for.

Lady Bird

This is a great movie on many levels: writing, directing, acting. Many are saying it could be this year’s Moonlight. That’s possible, but I’d say it is still a major underdog. This is a very small and contained movie that will have difficulty against something as grand as Dunkirk. The editing is not flashy but it is excellent and I would love to see a nom there.

Darkest Hour

I really had my hair blown back by this. Strong for nominations in all the major categories, especially the tech ones. The screenplay couches Churchill as a writer hero, so look for the writer’s branch especially to champion this one. There is room for two movies about Dunkirk to

The Big Sick

This is a lovely rom-com which unfortunately is a category the Academy has historically snubbed. However, I can see the writer’s branch nominating the very personal script from Kumail Nanjani and Emily V. Gordon. If you have Amazon Prime, this is now available to watch for free.

Last Flag Flying

There is a contingent that really wanted to see writer/director Richard Linklater win for Boyhood. That might help this film which purports to be about the current Iraq War, but which is really about the Vietnam War. The acting is strong with all three main leads: Steve Carrell, Laurence Fishburne and Bryan Cranston getting their moments. I think Cranston has the best chance of getting nominated, since his character is the one that undergoes the most change. The politics of the film are pretty wishy-washy, which I think will hurt with Academy voters, even though it does have a strong Boomer appeal.

Murder on the Orient Express

Fun movie. It may have a shot in the Costume and Makeup categories.