Oscar Chase, part 6The Screenplay
I bet it surprises a lot of people that among the final announcements in the Oscar ceremony are the two given for writing:
Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay. This is as it should be. Along with Best Director and Best Picture, these are the most prestigious awards. The screenwriter gets dumped on a lot in Hollywood. Even Paddy Chayefsky, who won a slew of writing Oscars (Marty, Network, The Hospital, after negotiating a similar contract to playwrights in that no one -- director, producer, actor -- was allowed to change his words without his permission, got dumped on. The picture was called Altered States and director Ken Russell was so egotistical that he intructed his actors to mumble and eat while talking to teach Paddy a lesson about the preciousness of his words. The movie's a mess, but the screenplay is still genius.
Anyway, this is first of my no-guts-no-glory posts on Oscar nominations. I'm going to be basing all of them on the Variety special-section previews because Variety is the most mainstream of the insider magazines, and will likely have the greatest influence on Academy voters (next to the actual quality of the movies themselves).
Patrick Marber, Closer - Adapted from his stageplay of the same name, Marber's caustic four-hander never quite catches fire, despite a smoldering cast and pyromaniac director. If the blame for that must fall somewhere, let it fall on his shoulders and perhaps Natalie Portman's, for not quite pulling off the Usual Suspects gambit. On the positive side, if most of the Academy catches this on screeners, the staginess of the story could work like gangbusters when confined in the television's screen.
Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby - If Morgan Freeman or Hillary Swank win Oscars, look for a sweep with Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Director and Best Picture. Personally, I don't think it will win because of the plot switcheroo at the end of the second act (or middle of the third, if you want to credit it with being really avant-garde). Still, the Academy loves Clint and Haggis (who did do a great adapting job) may just get to bask in the reflected glory.
Alexand Payne & Jim Taylor, Sideways - If they can beat 'the curse of the comedy,' this dynamic duo might just have a shot. This may actually be their best chance at winning all night. Look to the Academy to give them this consolation prize instead of giving them Best Picture.
Jean-Pierre Jeunet & Guillaume Laurant, A Very Long Engagement - An even slighter chance of getting nommed than The Sea Inside, this epic will probably be entirely snubbed at the oscars. Too bad. It was quite goood.
Ronald Harwood, Being Julia - There has been almost zero press on this movie. Other than Annette Bening's performance, it would seem to be on the sandy blank vellum otherwise known as off the map. No chance of even a nom.
Tod Williams, The Door in the Floor - One of my friends is a real partisan of this movie. I have to admit I haven't seen it. Even though I think I'd like it and that it is probably really well done, it's just too far off the Academy radar to even have a chance. Despite its source being John Irving.
Jose Rivera, Motorcycle Diaries - Rivera is a brilliant playwright probably entirely unknown to Academy voters. I still haven't seen this movie (although I meant to catch it last year at Sundance), but for all the buzz I doubt the Academy loves Che enough to cast any kudos its way.
Nicole Kassell & Steven Fechter, The Woodsman - Although based on Fechter's play, this is not exactly a writer's movie. Either they stripped out most of the dialogue for the movie, or it was a really quiet play. In any case, there is but one memorable moment in this movie, when Kevin Bacon's character asks a little girl to sit on his lap. The rest is dull. I blame the writing, directing and even acting for that. The Academy will probably blame just the writing.
Original
John Logan, The Aviator - Though essentially an adaptation of the public record about Howard Hughes, Logan's Shakespearean character-study qualfies as an original. There were other writers who had their hands on the material (and directors Michael Mann and Martin Scorsese) but Logan, one of screenwriting's A-list, managed to get a contract on this movie saying his name would be the only one credited for the screenplay and that no one (especially actors) could take credit for writing lines. Good for him. While the movie is a bit diffuse, it is always well-written and would seem to be the running favorite.
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - I wish wish wish he would win, but I know he won't. Kaufman, for all the love, remains outside the conservative Academy's mainstream. He will, however, hopefully get a nom.
Alejandro Amenabar & Mateo Gil, The Sea Inside - Another biopic in the original category, this one will get lucky just to be nommed. Not that it doesn't deserve it, but this is a Spanish-language movie, and we all know that most non-English language movies end up residing in the Academy's designated ghetto: Best Foreign Film.
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake - Leigh's unorthodox methods create the script after the rehearsals with the actors. It leads to great performances and even solid scripts, but will likely be too confusing credit-wise for the Academy to bother. Since the film is balanced on both sides of the abortion debate, the pro-choice Academy will probably resist lending it support, including in the form of a nomination. I think here Variety has over-reached. From this movie only Imelda Staunton has a good shot at winning.
Pedro Almodovar, Bad Education - The Academy likes Pedro, but this dark, weird film probably has less chance than The Sea Inside of making off with any kind of Oscar.
Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke, Before Sunset - I was surprised this movie got a WGA nom because it is written by a director and two actors. But since it's actually quite good, I'm not upset. This is a simple little movie that a lot of people really loved. It did quite well in the Village Voice critics survey. Unforch for its Oscar chances, the Village Voice is nowhere near the tastebuds of the Academy. Slight chance of a nom, no chance of a win.
Stuart Beattie, Collateral - Writing a good action movie is as tough as writing anything else. But it is not as respected by the Academy. No chance.
Keir Pearson & Terry George, Hotel Rwanda - Haven't seen the movie. If it truly is done well and written well, not just a heart-breaking story that would tug on us even if it was done in clay-mation, then I think this has a good chance, the script probably most of all. I'll just say 'never underestimate white guilt' and leave it at that.
Brad Bird, The Incredibles - Boy would I love to see this get a nomination, even though it could never win. The Incredibles is going to walk away with Best Animated thanks to Bird's hilarious, all-ages-pleasing script. But alas, few Academy members probably respect writing for animation on the level it deserves.
Joshua Marston, Maria Full of Grace - A great first feature that has zero chance of breaking through since Marston didn't also star in it. If he had, Matt & Ben could be bragging post-Oscar that they paved the way.
Taylor Hackford & James White, Ray - This will definitely get a nom but probably has zero chance of winning against the more subtle writing in other biopics. There's also the problem of two sighted white guys writing about rascism against a blind black musician. Even if they had pulled it off perfectly, who wouldn't question their intentions. Jamie Foxx saved this movie, and is the true magnet for awards.
James L. Brooks, Spanglish - The Academy loves him, and the movie speaks right to them. Will they take the bait? My gut says yes. Then again, I liked the movie more than the critical concensus, which may ultimately keep most Academy members from even bothering to screen this writerly domestic comedy.
Not Talked About in Variety
Benedict Fitzgerald and Mel Gibson, The Passion of the Christ - Look for a Best Adapted nom out of nowhere to acknowledge the movie's commercial and political importance.
Michael Moore, Fahrenheit 9/11 - See above but under Best Original.
David Magee, Finding Neverland - Adapted from a play by Allan Knee and nominated in the Golden Globes for Best Screenplay, never underestimate the Miramax PR engine.
Tina Fey, Mean Girls - Hot off a WGA nom for "Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published," I'm guessing this will eke into the Academy nominations because the Writer's Guild overlaps so much (nominations are decided by people involved in each category, winners by everyone), and because it provides some female representation in a male-dominated category. Oh, and everyone loves Tina Fey.
Bill Condon, Kinsey - A winner already for Gods & Monsters, Condon's masterful biopic seems like a shoe-in for Best Original. A major oversight by Variety's editors.
No Guts, No Glory Early Early Predictions
Best Adapted: Sideways, Million Dollar Baby, Closer, Finding Neverland, Mean Girls
Winner: Sideways
Best Original: The Aviator, Ray, Hotel Rwanda, Eternal Sushine of the Spotless Mind, Kinsey
Winner: The Aviator
UPDATE: My friend Sam thinks I underestimated the chances of non-English lingo movies:
Variety doesn't really know what they're talking about sometimes, what with their lack of mentioning the KINSEY and NEVERLAND screeenplays, or any chance of FAHRENHEIT or PASSION getting mentioned here, though unlikely. Your final predix are pretty solid, but a couple reactions:-like I said in my post, I don't think MEAN GIRLS has a shot in hell.. Maybe the
WGA is casual enough, but not the Academy.- I think BEFORE SUNSET is officially Adapted. I suppose because of it being
"based on" its original counterpart in SUNRISE. Seems like it should be Original to me, but everywhere I've seen (other than Variety) lists it as Adapted.- you said that they never nominate foreign films in these categories, but it's quite the opposite: Both Y TU MAMA TAMBIEN and TALK TO HER were both nominated for Original Screenplay the same year, for example -- I think this is actually a category
where the best Foreign films shine. I forgot about THE SEA INSIDE, so maybe we'll see that nod.- I also am confident that ETERNAL SUNSHINE is the frontrunner for Original
Screenplay - yes, the win. SIDEWAYS has Adapted locked. AVIATOR will thankfully win Best Picture, and even though it's rare for a Best Picture not to win screenplay, I think that the industry's love for SUNSHINE is too great to ignore. We, and the Academy, are ready to embrace these films. These new forms of Hollywood narrative - MEMENTO, ADAPTATION, etc, are all being welcomed and rewarded.On a related note, I saw A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT again tonight, where I gave it a
fair, patient viewing (originally seen on a hectic and sleepy Christmas Eve). What an amazing screenplay. Jeunet has taken his every-character-has-a-story theme which has only matured to adolescence in his other films (the brief cutaways in AMELIE for
example) and found a story that lets him fully explore this narrative style. Some might say that it weakens the MMM love story, but the narrative scope is too intricate and impressive for the film's emotional power to be diminished.
Sam

